Thursday, May 28, 2009

Proposed Voluntary Delisting of E&E

E&E's parent company, Kingboard Chemical Holdings Limited (Kingboard), is seeking to privatise E&E for US$63.3million.

It will offer shareholders of E&E cash of US$1.20 per share or 0.45 new Kingboard shares at an issue price of HK$20.50 each. Shareholders can also choose to receive a combination of both.

For example, if you own 1 lot of E&E shares, you can choose to receive:
(1) US$1,200 in cash
or (2) 450 new Kingboard share
or (3) US$600 and 225 new Kingboard shares.

However, in the event of non-clearance by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, E&E shareholders can only receive cash.

The proposal requires at least 75% approval from E&E shareholders during the EGM. Kingboard already owns 71.1% in E&E and major or controlling shareholders do not need to abstain from voting. The offer will not be conditional upon the minimum number of acceptances received.

Main reasons for the delisting include prolonged undervaluation of E&E shares, low trading volume and "no necessity to access the capital markets".

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Sigh... I can only say... major sianz...

Monday, May 18, 2009

Temasek-Linked Companies

Sources:
"Who will do a rights issue next" by Goola Warden from The Edge, dated March 16,2009 and
Bloomberg.com

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

What to Expect of the Smaller Companies in the Next 2 Quarters?

One of the reports in Money section of The Straits Times (12 May 2009) says "Profit results put smile back on analysts' faces". The article talks about better-than-expected results from blue chips companies.

I think most of the small companies, especially those in the manufacturing sector, may see business bottomed in Q1 2009. Although many will hand-in dismal results during this reporting season but improvement can be anticipated in the next two quarters. However, this does not imply that the economy is out of the woods.

During the last quarter of 2008, the pessimism and panicky as a result of the series of unfortunate events had caused MNCs and big companies to drastically reduce orders and capital investment. As most of the transactions and agreements could not be cancelled immediately, the significant part of the adverse impact on suppliers was only evident in Q1 2009.

Now it seems that the situation does not turn out as bad as that predicted during the super-gloomy days in October 2008. Companies that had stopped or reduced purchases are likely to be running low in inventory, hence are slowly increasing orders. That is why the smaller companies may see a rebound in sales for the next few months.

Whether the improvement is sustainable, a lot will have to depend on what happens to the US economy in the next two quarters. Without additional systematic shocks, we could likely be on our way to recovery.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Why Develop My Own System? Isn't it Easier to Just Go Buy A System with Proven Results?

By Van Tharp

There are hundreds, if not thousands, of trading systems that work. But most people, after purchasing a pre-existing system, will not follow the system and trade it exactly as it was intended. Why not? Because the system doesn’t fit them or their style of trading.

One of the biggest secrets of successful trading is finding a trading system that fits you. In fact, Jack Schwager, after interviewing enough “market wizards” to write two books, concluded that the most important characteristic of all good traders was that they had found a system of methodology that was right for them.

When someone else develops a system for you, you don't know what biases they might have. Developing your own system allows for compatibility with your own beliefs, objectives, personality and edges.

Furthermore, most of the system development software for sale really encourages some of the trading biases that I see as detrimental to overall trading success.

For example, give a system developer enough leeway and that person will have a system that perfectly predicts the moves in the market and makes thousands of dollars on paper with certain historical markets. Most software allows people to optimize to their heart's content. Eventually, they will end up with a meaningless system that makes a fortune on the data from which it was obtained, but performs miserably in real trading.

Most system development software is designed because people want to know the perfect answer to the markets. They want to be able to predict the markets perfectly. As a result, you can buy software now for a few hundred dollars that will allow you to overlay numerous studies over past market data. Within a few minutes, you can begin to think that the markets are perfectly predictable. And that belief will stay with you until you attempt to trade the real market instead of the historically optimized market. Many trading accounts have plummeted from this very thinking. One “sure-thing” trade placed without proper position sizing can wipe some traders completely out of the game.

...

You must concentrate on the most important task of system development. If you do it properly, it will take at least half of your time during the development process. When you learn what it is, you’ll say, "Of course, it’s important," but you’ll still probably spend very little time on it.

That critical task is developing sound objectives.

Jack Schwager, after writing two Market Wizard books, concluded that the most important characteristic of the top traders and investors he interviewed was that they had adopted a trading system to fit them. But to develop a system that fits you, you need to really think about what you want. There are at least 30 questions you need to address when you develop a trading system. It’s not a trivial task.

What is an objective?

Your objective is your goal, your target. It is the things that you want your system to accomplish.

Objectives set the roadmap for the entire system development process. How would one know how to get someplace if they didn’t know where they were going first? It is easy enough to see that if one trader had an objective such as “I want a system that trades long-term stocks, that requires my attention only once each week and makes 20% per year” compared to a trader’s objectives of “I want to actively trade my mother’s retirement account for four hours each day, without holding overnight positions” – two completely different systems would be required. The objectives or goals are very different. There are endless configurations of objectives. The point is, you need to specifically know what it is that you are trying to attain and only then can you develop a trading system that will help you attain it.

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The above is actually a marketing article to promote a course on developing your own trading system.

I think the general idea of setting your own system to suit your personality applies to investment in general. Basically, I view "system" as a set of criteria to be fulfilled before implementing a decision.

My previous posts on "Strategies for Defensive Investors" are essentially evaluating different "systems" for defensive investing (in Singapore market using STI ETF).

Besides Mr. Chen Yi's "Stock Selection Criteria", the SGDividends team has also identified a set of "Minimum Considerations" for a DIY Equity Investor". I find these interesting and useful resources for a beginner in investment to start with.

Do you know of other investment "systems" for value- or defensive investors?
Would appreciate if you care to share.




P/s: As for the bolded and underlined part in the above article "you need to really think about what you want", I really think it applies to LIFE actually.